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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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