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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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