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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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