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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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