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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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