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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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