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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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