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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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