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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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