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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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