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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
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