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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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