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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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