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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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