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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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