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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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