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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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