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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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