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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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