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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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