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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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