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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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