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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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