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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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