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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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