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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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