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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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