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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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