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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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