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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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