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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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