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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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