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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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