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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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