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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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