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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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Showing 726 to 730 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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