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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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