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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
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Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
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Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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