We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
|
|
|
Showing 721 to 725 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
|
| |
| |
|
