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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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