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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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