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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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