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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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