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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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