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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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