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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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