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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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