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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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