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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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