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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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