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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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