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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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