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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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